Wednesday 16 April 2008

Time to get out of Dodge?

I just finished reading James Kunstler's The Long Emergency, all about the imminent depletion of the world's oil, and I tell you what, it makes for frightening reading - all the more so because his arguments are persuasive, are presented matter-of-factly, and his predictions of future problems (the book was written in 2004) appear to be coming true. If I may summarise (pay attention at the back now, I may ask questions at the end):
  1. The world appears to have hit peak oil production. This means that the existing fields are pumping at maximum or are nearing depletion and there are no more great finds to be had in the world (the big companies have been looking).
  2. Whether we blame Americans for driving their V-8s enormous distances to pick up the kids from soccer practice and a Big Mac or two, or the Chinese for wanting a slice of the industrial pie, it is beside the point; the world is consuming ever more of a finite resource.
  3. America (and Britain I might add) has been blindly following a course of suburban living based on a misplaced belief in the eternal existence of cheap oil to power the luxury of living miles away from any amenities. Without oil, the suburbs will become the new slums - neither close to urban convenience, nor able to function as a true rural economy.
  4. Biofuels are a con. It takes as much energy to turn the crops into fuel as they can produce. Meanwhile, less land is able to be farmed for food, which will exacerbate world hunger.
  5. Solar panels and wind turbines can only exist in the shadow of an oil-based economy. How do you make the components without oil? Oh, and hydrogen fuel cells eat up more energy to create than they can produce.
  6. We are running out of natural gas, and all the cheap coal has been mined already.
  7. Nuclear power works, but has obvious dangers and requires a strong central government to ensure its safe use.
  8. There are about 6 billion people on the planet. Before industrialisation there were around 1 billion. Without the feedstock of oil power and natural gas fertilisers, we have about 5 billion people more than can be fed by a pre-industrial (ie organic) agriculture. How secure is any society or government going to be when the vast majority of folk are starving? Expect wars over resources, civil strife and scapegoating of preceived enemies.
  9. What future civilisation there will be will be small and local. Globalisation is dead in the water without cheap oil. The world of Wal-Marts, supermarkets and fast food, dependent on supply lines stretching around the world, is approaching its sell-by date.
  10. The future will be nasty brutish and short for most of us. Want to survive? Sell your house in the suburbs, avoid the big cities and find a small town with access to good farmland and build strong relations with your neighbours. But I got to Kounoyama first, OK?

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